Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
