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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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